Production trends
Over the years, the area dedicated to nutmeg production has shown fluctuating patterns, with a peak of 220,048 Ha in 2018.
However, this figure has seen a decline in subsequent years. Despite the optimism among individual farmers, productivity per hectare has faced challenges, with the highest recorded productivity of 548 Kg/Ha in 2019, followed by a decline to 460 Kg/Ha in 2020, that can be attributed to various factors : extreme weather events, changes in cultivation practices & commodities, aging trees…
Impact of Weather Conditions
From 2018 to 2022, Indonesia witnessed extreme weather fluctuations, including periods of intense drought and heavy rainfall.
The dry weather in 2018, with an average temperature of 26.5°C led to a boost in productivity, while the following years experienced increasing rainfalls (consequences of La Niña) and resulted in a decreased productivity.
These dynamics in weather evolution have played a significant role in shaping the production and export trends of Nutmeg in Indonesia.
Market Dynamics and Future Projections
Despite the challenges of varying weather conditions and declined productivity, the demand for Indonesian nutmeg remains quite high in the global market.
The El-Niño phenomenon in 2023 and 2024 is projected to further affect productivity, depending on other factors such as cultivation practices and the adaptability of farmers to changing weather conditions and market demands (especially on prices).
Overall, the market situation will be low for the coming couple of years.
In addition, the issue of aflatoxin remains a concern and is directly correlated to harvesting and preparation best practices. Initiatives to educate farmers on modern methods and tools to mitigate the risk of harmful compounds developing in the finished product are key to increasing yield of higher quality nutmeg and increasing income to the farmers.
As a conclusion, the Indonesian nutmeg market has shown flexibility despite the challenges it has faced in recent years. While weather conditions’ fluctuations and varying market demands continue to generate obstacles and questioning, the industry can potentially mitigate these questions through the implementation of adaptive farming practices and continuous weather monitoring.
Other assets such as sustainability or proactive grouped initiatives may turn out to be essential for the long-term stability of the Indonesia Nutmeg industry.
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